‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

After last weeks somewhat downbeat look at sunspot cycles, current,
past and future, we sure have some great activity to report this
week.  The average daily sunspot number more than doubled in the
past week, rising nearly 93 points to 163.3. Average daily solar
flux was up more than 37 points to 147.7. On top of that, the
geomagnetic conditions were very quiet, which is a wonderful
combination, not often seen in more active solar cycles.  There is a
bit of uncertainty regarding the mid latitude A index on January 5
and 6. Some sort of outage for 24 hours blocked the data, from
Fredericksburg, Virginia, on 8 consecutive 3 hour readings from late
January 5, in UTC, through early January 6. The mid latitude K index
tracked closely with the planetary K index from January 3 to 9, so
if the data were not missing, the January 5 mid latitude A index
would probably have been a little higher, and the January 6 mid
latitude A index a little lower than reported. The daily A index is
based solely upon the eight K index readings throughout the day.
Currently NOAA and USAF predict solar flux values of 175 on January
11 and 12, 170 on January 13 and 14, 165, 150 and 125 on January 15
to 17, 105 on January 18 and 19, 110 and 120 on January 20 and 21,
125 on January 22 to 24, 130 on January 25 to 28, 135 on January 29,
140 on January 30 through February 1, then 135, 140, 135 and 130 on
February 2 to 5, and 125 on February 6 and 7.  A predicted planetary
A index is 5 on January 11, 8 on January 12 and 13, 5 on January 14
to 19, 8 on January 20 and 21, 5 in January 22 to 25, 10 on January
26, 5 on January 27 through February 2, 8 on February 3 to 5, 5 on
February 6 to 8, and 10 on February 9.  The forecast is from January
10, and the solar flux portion is identical to the same report on
January 9. The A index portion is only slightly different on a
couple of days, otherwise the same as Wednesdays forecast.  OK1HH
has an updated geomagnetic activity forecast. He says to watch for
quiet to unsettled conditions January 11 and 12, active to disturbed
January 13, quiet to unsettled January 14, mostly quiet January 15,
quiet to active January 16, quiet on January 17 to 19, mostly quiet
January 20 and 21, quiet on January 22 to 25, mostly quiet January
26, quiet to active January 27, quiet January 28 and 29, mostly
quiet January 30 and 31, and quiet again on February 1 and 2.  Check
the website //ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/ for solar data.  Look at
the first column on the left for date, second column for time and
the fifth column for observed solar flux. Daily readings are at
1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC, but the 2000 UTC reading, local noon, is
the official solar flux number for the day.  Sunspot numbers were
116, 167, 181, 186, 196, 144, and 153, with a mean of 163.3. 10.7 cm
flux was 128.8, 143.1, 145.1, 142.2, 149.7, 155.6, and 169.3, with a
mean of 147.7.  Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3,
and 3, with a mean of 2.7. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 2,
2, 1, 6, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of 2.9.

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰