‰ Now 18 WPM transition file follows ‰

Conditions were quieter again this week. Average daily sunspot
numbers declined from 77 to 69, and average daily solar flux was off
by 9.5 points to 106.9, when compared to the previous seven days,
August 22 to 28.  Predicted solar flux for the near term is 105 on
September 6 to 10, 100 on September 11 and 12, 110 on September 13,
120 on September 14 and 15, 115 on September 16 and 17, 110 on
September 18, 105 on September 19 and 20, 110 on September 21 and
22, 105 on September 23 and 24, and 100 on September 25 to 28. It
then is expected to reach a minor peak of 115 on October 4 and 5,
then 120 on October 9 to 12.  These predictions come from a 45 day
forecast. Yesterday, September 5, the solar flux was 110.1. The
first prediction for that date in this series pegged it at 135,
which maintained from July 22 to 28, then 105 on July 29 through
August 4, 115 on August 5 to 11, 105 on August 12 to 18, 110 on
August 19 to 28, 112 on August 29, 115 on August 30, 118 on August
31, 112 on September 1 and 2, and then they nailed it at 110 again
on September 3 and 4. Note that these arent the flux readings on
those dates. They are the predicted values for September 5, as they
varied from day to day in the daily forecast for the previous 45
days.  You can see those daily forecasts at
//www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html The planetary A
index is in the same forecast. The latest has predicted planetary A
index at 5 on September 6 to 8, 10 on September 9 and 10, 12 on
September 11, 8 on September 12 to 14, 5 on September 15 and 16,
then 12, 18 and 15 on September 17 to 19, 5 on September 20 to 22,
and 8 on September 23 and 24.  The Autumnal Equinox, September 22 at
2044 UTC, is a little over two weeks away. Fall is always a great
time for HF DX, when the sun casts an even glow over our northern
and southern hemispheres.  Although solar activity is weak, if this
is Cycle 24s peak, now may be the best time for enjoying HF
propagation for some years to come.  Or the Sun could fool us again.
Remember that day to day variations in solar activity can swing
wildly above and below any predicted smoothed or averaged sunspot or
solar flux number. But we havent seen much of that lately.  Thanks
so much to Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI in Costa Rica who sent a link to
a fascinating article in Phys.Org News and Astronomy and
Astrophysics about yet another failure to replicate earlier studies
claiming a correlation between planetary positions and solar
activity. In this case, the authors found several serious
statistical errors in the earlier analysis. Read the article and
abstract at //phys.org/news/ and //www.aanda.org/articles/.  Note
that for a limited time, the full text of the paper is available for
free by clicking on the Register Now button on that last page.
Sunspot numbers were 55, 62, 60, 71, 84, 74, and 77, with a mean of
69. 10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 107.5, 107.5, 103.8, 105.6, 106, and
109.3, with a mean of 106.9.  Estimated planetary A indices were 3,
8, 11, 9, 10, 7, and 6, with a mean of 7.7. Estimated mid latitude A
indices were 4, 7, 11, 10, 11, 8, and 9, with a mean of 8.6.

‰ End of 18 WPM transition file ‰