‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

For the second week in a row, average daily sunspot numbers were
down. From ARRL Propagation Bulletins 6 to 10 the average sunspot
numbers were 139, 81.6, 54.6, 59, and 54.1. Over the past week the
number was all the way down to 32.  Also for the second week in a
row, average daily solar flux had a trend, but this one was up.
Average daily solar flux from ARRL Propagation Bulletins 6 to 11
were 151.1, 144.1, 121.4, 116.3, 122.9 and 127.8. These averages
cover dates from January 29 through March 11.  Predicted solar flux
is 128 on March 13 and 14, 130 on March 15 and 16, 135 on March 17
to 19, 125 on March 20, 120 on March 21, 115 on March 22 and 23, 110
on March 24 to 27 and 115 on March 28 to 31.  Solar flux then goes
to a high of 125 on April 2 to 15, then drops to a low of 110 again
on April 20 to 23.  Predicted planetary A index is 30, 20 and 12 on
March 13 to 15, then 10, 20, 15 and 10 on March 16 to 19, 5 on March
20 and 21, then 15, 20 and 8 on March 22 to 24, 5 on March 25 and
26, then 15, 30, 25, 12 and 10 on March 27 to 31, then 8, 10, 15,
12, 18 and 12 on April 1 to 6, 8 on April 7 and 8, and 10 on April 9
and 10.  Going all the way out toward the end of the 45 day
forecast, planetary A index for April 24 is expected to be 30. As
you can see, forecasters predict similar active geomagnetic
conditions seen as previous solar cycles turned downward. The
current sunspot cycle peaked about a year ago.  OK1MGW of the Czech
Propagation Interest Group predicts geomagnetic conditions will be
quiet to active March 13, mostly quiet March 14, quiet to unsettled
March 15, quiet to active March 16 to 18, mostly quiet March 19 and
20, quiet to unsettled March 21, quiet to active March 22, active to
disturbed March 23 and quiet to unsettled March 24.  Then it will be
mostly quiet March 25 and 26, quiet to unsettled March 27, active to
disturbed March 28 and 29, quiet to unsettled March 30 through April
2, quiet to active April 3, quiet to unsettled April 4 and 5, quiet
on April 6, and mostly quiet April 7 and 8.  OK1MGW believes most
increases in solar wind are unpredictable during this period, but
some peaks are expected March 16 and 17, 22 and 23 and 28 and 29.
Last Saturday, March 7 at 2222 UTC emerging sunspot 2297 produced a
strong solar flare. Although not aimed toward Earth, it produced an
extreme ultraviolet flash on our Suns horizon, which ionized upper
layers of Earths atmosphere and caused an HF radio blackout over the
Pacific below 10 MHz.  On March 8, Spaceweather.com reported, It may
seem strange, but solar flares can be both good and bad for radio
communications. It all depends on the frequency. Below 10 MHz,
signals were strongly attenuated. At higher frequencies, however,
the reflectivity of the ionosphere was increased, allowing improved
over the horizon communications. Ham radio operator Bob MacKenzie of
Ottawa, Canada, shares this anecdote, Only minutes after the M9
flare on March 7th, I was able to work three amateur stations in
Japan using just 5 watts of single sideband power and a single
element vertical antenna in my backyard.  Sunspot numbers were 31,
37, 20, 23, 29, 42, and 42, with a mean of 32. 10.7 cm flux was 130,
127.4, 137.8, 124.2, 122.9, 120.9, and 131.7, with a mean of 127.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 13, 20, 11, 6, 5, and 9, with
a mean of 10. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 5, 9, 17, 7, 6,
4, and 8, with a mean of 8.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ