‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

There were no new sunspots over the past week, from April 23 to 29,
even though in the previous seven days there were new sunspots every
day, and one day, April 21 had two new ones. The day after the
reporting week, April 30, saw two new spots.  Both solar flux and
daily sunspot numbers declined. The average daily sunspot number
dropped from 120.9 to 60.7, and average daily solar flux went down
from 150.4 to 119.8.  We currently are experiencing a very quiet
Sun, but looking at the STEREO mission at //stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
there is activity just over the solar horizon.  You can see the
weakening outlook in the NOAA/USAF 45 day forecast for solar flux. I
have an archive of these in spreadsheet form at
//www.filedropper.com/ . Just click Download This File and select
Yes to ignore the warning.  Take a look at the weakening solar flux
forecasts for May 1, which began on March 17 at 120, then rose to
130 on March 23, then to 140 on March 30, but on April 6 dropped to
115. It rose again to 125 on April 13, then 135 on April 20, then
began to decline again to 125 on April 23, 115 on April 24, 110 on
April 26, 100 on April 27 and 95 on April 28 and 29.  Predicted
solar flux for May 1 is 100, 105 on May 2 and 3, 110 on May 4, 115
on May 5 and 6, 120 on May 7, 135 on May 8 and 9, 130 and 125 on May
10 and 11, 130 on May 12 to 14, then 125, 130 and 125 on May 15 to
17, 120 on May 18 and 19, and 115 on May 20 to 23. Flux values are
then forecast to drop to 110 on May 27 to 29, then rise to 135 on
June 3 to 5.  Predicted planetary A index is 10 on May 1, 8 on May
2, 5 on May 3 to 11, 25 on May 12, 20 on May 13 and 14, then 12, 8,
12, 20, 12 and 8 on May 15 to 20, 5 on May 21 to 25, 8 on May 26,
and 10 on May 27 and 28. The next predicted increase is to 25 on
June 8.  F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group
sees active to disturbed geomagnetic conditions on May 1, quiet to
active conditions May 2, mostly quiet May 3 to 6, active to
disturbed May 7 and 8, quiet to active May 9, mostly quiet May 10,
quiet on May 11, active to disturbed May 12, disturbed on May 13 and
14, quiet to active May 15, quiet to unsettled May 16 to 18, and
mostly quiet May 19 and 20.  OK1HH believes that increases in solar
wind are difficult to predict, but some peaks are expected May 3 to
5, May 15 to 18 and May 20.  The days are lengthening, and we sure
notice it here at 47.67 degrees latitude. Compared to April 1, on
May 5 the Sun rises 60 minutes earlier and sets about 47 minutes
later. Im looking at both days with W6ELprop using a solar flux of
100 over the path from Seattle to Japan, and can see that 20 meters
is open about two and a half hours later in the evening of May 5.
Also notable is the path from Seattle to Atlanta on both dates, with
17 meters opening 90 minutes later on May 5 and shutting down about
two hours later in the night than April 1.  Archives of the
NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and planetary A index
are at //www.filedropper.com/ .  Click on Download this file to
download the archive and view in spreadsheet format.  Sunspot
numbers were 110, 79, 77, 55, 42, 36, and 26, with a mean of 60.7.
10.7 cm flux was 140.5, 134.5, 125.9, 118.5, 107.5, 107.7, and 104,
with a mean of 119.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 3, 4,
5, 6, and 4, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid latitude A indices
were 6, 5, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 4, with a mean of 4.6.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ