‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

All daily sunspot numbers dipped into the double digits last week,
with the average declining from 73.7 to 43.4.  This compares the
latest July 16 to 22 period against the previous seven days.  Over
the same periods, average daily solar flux went from 114.8 to 95.1.
Geomagnetic indices were mostly quiet, with average daily planetary
A index going from 13.7 to 6.1 and average mid latitude A index
declining from 12.3 to 8.1.  At 0749 UTC on July 23 the Australian
Space Forecast Center posted a geomagnetic disturbance warning, A
sustained period of southward IMF is resulting in mildly elevated
levels of geomagnetic activity, particularly at high latitude
regions.  Further mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are
possible during the remainder of 23 July.  And indeed the planetary
A index for the day was 23, with planetary K index reaching 3, 4, 5
and 3 over the first four 3 hour readings.  The high latitude
college A index was 33, with the first K index readings at 3, 4, 7,
and 4.  Predicted solar flux is 90 on July 24, 95 on July 25, 100 on
July 26 and 27, 105 on July 28 to 30, 110 on July 31, 115 on August
1 to 4, 110 and 105 on August 5 and 6, 100 on August 7 to 9, then 95
on August 10 to 13, finally dipping to 85 by August 15, then
peaking, weakly, at 115 on August 28 to 31.  Predicted planetary A
index is 15, 12, 8 and 5 on July 24 to 27, then 10, 8, 5 and 18 on
July 28 to 31, then 25 and 12 on August 1 and 2, 5 on August 3 to 5,
then 20, 25, 15, 10, and 8 on August 6 to 10, 5 on August 11 to 15,
10 on August 16, 5 on August 17 and 18, then 15 and 10 on August 19
and 20, 5 on August 21 to 26, then 18, 25 and 12 on August 27 to 29.
NOAA says the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on
July 24 and 25 and quiet to unsettled on July 26.  OK1HH sees the
geomagnetic field as quiet to active on July 24, quiet to unsettled
July 25, mostly quiet July 26, quiet July 27, mostly quiet July 28,
quiet July 29, quiet to active July 30, active to disturbed July 31
through August 1, quiet to active August 2, mostly quiet August 3,
quiet on August 4, mostly quiet August 5, quiet to active August 6,
active to disturbed August 7 and 8, quiet to active August 9, quiet
to unsettled August 10, mostly quiet August 11, quiet August 12 to
14, mostly quiet August 15, quiet to unsettled August 16, mostly
quiet August 17 and quiet on August 18.  He sees increases in solar
wind on July 24 to 26, August 1 to 5, and 8 to 10.  He sees
uncertainty though for any predictions on July 26, August 1 to 5,
August 8, August 17 and 18.  Check this table of predicted
International Sunspot Numbers //1.usa.gov/1HOVlDP Note the next
minimum is predicted roughly for July 2019, just four years from
now, and unlike the last minima, there is some sunspot activity.
Lets hope this is correct.  Compare those numbers with all of 2009
in the same table.  These are smoothed sunspot numbers, and someone
out there is optimistic.  Archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day
forecast for solar flux and planetary A index are in downloadable
spreadsheet format at //bit.ly/1IBXtnG and //bit.ly/1KQGbRm .
Sunspot numbers were 55, 40, 52, 46, 39, 37, and 35, with a mean of
43.4.  10.7 cm flux was 99.6, 97.4, 96, 99.4, 93.2, 91, and 89, with
a mean of 95.1.  Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 5, 4, 3, 5,
10, and 8, with a mean of 6.1.  Estimated mid latitude A indices
were 15, 7, 4, 3, 7, 12, and 9, with a mean of 8.1.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ