‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Solar indices pulled back this week, when average sunspot number was
25.3 for the May 19 to 25 period, down 38.8 points from the previous
weeks average of 64.1.  Likewise, average daily solar flux over the
same period was 97, down 3.4 points from the previous weeks average
of 100.4.  Planetary A index average was 7.1, down 2.8 points from
9.9, and average daily mid latitude A index was 7, down 3.9 points
from 10.9.  We should continue to see this overall decline in solar
activity for at least the next four years.  Compared to past cycles,
this one is considerably weaker.  But I wouldnt worry much about
some reports in the media suggesting we face several future solar
cycles that would be very weak.  Although astrophysicists know much
more about the sun than in the past, and have far better tools and
resources for monitoring day to day activity, the record so far
shows that long range forecasts have varied all over the place, and
have not proved consistent or true.  Remember Mausumi Dikpati?  She
was the scientist who predicted that the current solar cycle, 24,
would be huge and record breaking, at least compared to the previous
four solar cycles.  It did not turn out the way we hoped.  We might
consider the same for more pessimistic forecasts in popular news
media.  Some links concerning Dikpatu and her forecast,
//www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/
//www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/CV.html The latest
forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux at 90 and 85 on May 27 and
28, 90 on May 29 and 30, 85 on May 31 to June 2, 90 on June 3 to 7,
95 on June 8, 100 on June 9 and 10, 95 on June 11 and 12, 90 on June
13 to 16, 85 on June 17 to 20, 90 on June 21 to 25, except 85 on
June 23, 95 on June 26 to 30 and 90 on July 1 to 4.  The latest
prediction for planetary A index is 12, 8, 14, 20 and 12 on May 27
to 31, then 5, 8, 15, 35, 30 and 15 on June 1 to 6, 5 on June 7 to
10, 12 on June 11 to 13, 8 on June 14 and 15, then 5, 15, 12, and 10
on June 16 to 19, 5 on June 20 and 21, then 12, 10, 8, 5, 15, 12 and
8 on June 22 to 28, 15 on June 29 and 30, then 35, 30 and 15 on July
1 to 3, and 5 on July 4 to 7.  Geomagnetic field will be Quiet on
June 19 and 20 Mostly quiet on May 31, June 7 and 8, 21 Quiet to
unsettled on May 27, 30, June 9 and 10, 14 to 16, 18, 22 Quiet to
active on May 28 and 29, June 1 to 3, 6, 11 to 13, 17 Active to
disturbed on May 28 and 29, June 4 and 5.  Increases in solar wind
from coronal holes are expected on May 28 and 29, June 1 to 6, 10 to
13, 17 and 18 Here are a couple of articles about a giant sunspot
last week and about changes in Earths magnetic field,
//www.siue.edu/news/2016/05/Sunspot.shtml There was a good Asian
opening on 20 CW this AM, heard XV9NPS about S5, worked BX2AK S 2 to
5 and worked a JA who was S8 all well past the usual peak of
propagation around 1300Z today.  Douglas Moore sent this article
from Science Daily about researchers in the Antarctic discovering
new facets of space weather,
//www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160520124427.htm Sunspot
numbers were 38, 43, 17, 15, 13, 24, and 27, with a mean of 25.3.
10.7 cm flux was 98.8, 99.5, 97.8, 97.4, 97.4, 94.3, and 93.6, with
a mean of 97.  Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 6, 15, 7, 5, 6,
and 3, with a mean of 7.1.  Estimated mid latitude A indices were 8,
6, 16, 5, 4, 6, and 4 with a mean of 7.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ