‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Solar activity increased over the past couple of weeks, with average
daily sunspot numbers at 13.4 on October 19 to 25, compared to 1.7
over the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux increased
from 70.5 to 76.7 over the same two weeks.  The reason for the
radically different averages is because this past week there were
just two days with no sunspots, and the previous week had no sunspot
activity on six of the seven days. Thanks to Don Wright, AA2F for
noticing that the averages shown at the bottom of last weeks
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 were carried over from the
previous weeks Propagation Bulletin, ARLP041.  Average daily
planetary A index was 11.6, declining from 21.1 to 11.6, and average
daily mid latitude A index decreased from 16.7 to 9.1.  Predicted
solar flux for the near term is 78 on October 27, 77 on October 28
to 30, 76 on October 31 through November 2, 77 on November 3, then
84 and 82 on November 4 and 5, 80 on November 6 to 17, 82 on
November 18 and 19, 84 on November 20, 85 on November 21 to 30, then
84 and 82 on December 1 and 2, and 80 on December 3 to 10.
Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12 and 8 on October 27 to 29, 5
on October 30 and 31, then 8 and 16 on November 1 and 2, 15 on
November 3, 5 on November 4 to 6, and then 28, 30, 40, 28, 26 and 8
on November 7 to 12.  Next it is 5 on November 13 and 14, then 12,
10, 8, 6 and 5 on November 15 to 19, then 18, 45, 40, 18 and 12 on
November 20 to 24, then 10, 8, 5, 8 and 10 on November 25 to 29,
then 5 on November 30 through December 3, then 28, 30, 40, 28, 26
and 8 on December 4 to 9, and 5 on November 10.  David Moore sent
this web site link, //bit.ly/2zIY2Lw .  On Friday October 20, my
first QSO on 15M SSB was LY3W in Lithuania, a much farther north
opening than usual. I then checked 12M CW and found 3B8DB, Mauritius
at 1318z. After a brief break at 1338z, a run of western and
southern Europeans answered my 12M SSB CQs working as far east as
Bulgaria.  I then noticed a cluster spot of DM500RT in Germany on
10M CW who I had just worked on 12M CW and SSB and he was good copy
559 and logged him at 1355z.  Italy and two French stations were
logged over the next 15 minutes followed by Brian, 9J2BO in Zambia
all CW. At 1458z Henry, IZ5CML was found S9 on 10M SSB and that was
followed by a nice run of Europeans on SSB.  I logged Croatia, 3
Malta calls all from the same station, 9H9GSM, getting ready for the
Boy Scout jamboree, Portugal, Spain, Balearic Island, EA6/DK5IR, and
many Italians including two 5th area mobiles.  IW5EKR/M was S9.
Last EU was Spain at 1536z. At 1518z S01WS, Western Sahara was
logged on 10 CW. 3C0L, Annobon Island, Africa operated by two very
talented Lithuanians was logged at 1804z on 10 CW. I then had a run
of very loud Brazilians on 10 SSB right after 3C0L. The SFI was
around 73, extremely low for a F2 10M opening to EU, the lowest I
can ever remember.  The second noteworthy day was Tuesday October
24. At 1501z, YL2BJ, Latvia was found on 12M CW, first northern EU
of season. Then after a break, I heard an OH8 station on 10M CW
calling in a pile up on Trinidad.  Sunspot numbers were 0, 0, 11,
13, 23, 23, and 24, with a mean of 13.4. 10.7 cm flux was 73.4,
75.7, 76.5, 77.3, 78, 77.5, and 78.8, with a mean of 76.7. Estimated
planetary A indices were 12, 8, 10, 6, 6, 18, and 21, with a mean of
11.6. Estimated mid latitude A indices were 9, 5, 13, 6, 3, 13, and
15, with a mean of 9.1.


‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ