‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

No sunspots were seen from January 31 through March 4, then from
March 13 to 17, and again March 25 to 30.  They returned on Sunday,
March 31 but only lasted four days, through Wednesday, April 3.
Sunspot numbers over that period were 14, 17, 18 and 17.  Average
daily sunspot numbers declined from 16 in last weeks report to 9.4
this week.  Average daily solar flux declined from 75.2 to 69.5.
Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.7 to 8.4, while average
middle latitude A index went from 3.9 to 7.3.  Predicted solar flux
is 70 on April 5 to 11, 69 on April 12 and 13, 70 on April 14 to 22,
then 69, 68, 69 and 69 on April 23 to 26, 70 on April 27 through May
7, 69 on May 8 to 10, and 70 on May 11 to 19.  Predicted planetary A
index is 12, 10, 12 and 8 on April 5 to 8, 5 on April 9 to 11, then
15 and 8 on April 12 and 13, 5 on April 14 to 23, then 10, 8, 5, 8,
10 and 8 on April 24 to 29, 10 on April 30 through May 1, 8 on May 2
and 3, 10 on May 4, 5 on May 5 to 8, then 15 and 8 on May 9 and 10,
and 5 on May 11 to 19.  In last weeks bulletin ARLP013 we presented
a message from Dr.  Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW in which she complained
about overhyped space weather stories in the mainstream press.  I
think we may have seen another example this week from a British
tabloid.  This was published on Wednesday when the planetary A index
was slightly unsettled at 12, on Thursday it was 8, and predicted
values of 12, 10, 12 and 8 follow on April 5 to 8 and 5 on April 9
and 10.  This is not expected to cause blow outs of electrical
transformers and power stations, as mentioned in the article, nor
leave people vulnerable to cancer.  The story was picked up by
another UK publication.  Note they quote Spaceweather.com predicting
only a minor stream of solar wind.  The Washington Post also
addressed this issue.  F. K. Janda, OK1HH sends us his geomagnetic
activity forecast for the period April 5 til May 1, 2019.
Geomagnetic field will be, Quiet on April 9, 14, 17 to 19, Quiet to
unsettled on April 5 to 8, 16, 20, 26, Quiet to active on April 15,
21 to 23, 24, 27 to 29, May 1 Unsettled to active on April 10, 11,
13, 25, 30 Active to disturbed April 12 Solar wind will intensify on
on April 6, 12 and 13, 15 and 16, 19 to 22, 23 and 24, 25 to 30, May
1 Mike Schaeffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania wrote on Thursday
night, Spring season high frequency band Es is slowly emerging out
of its dormant state.  On Friday, April 5, 0100 UTC Thursday, April
4, 900 PM EDT local, I was monitoring the 11 meter Citizen Band, 27
MHz, and noticed a swooshing, light fading condition on channel 28,
which is normally inactive.  All of a sudden like a flick of a light
switch E skip emerged from the states of GA, AL and LA.  The average
distance from Easton, PA was about 1,000 miles.  Activity lasted for
a brief time of about ten minutes.  This occurred one hour, thirty
two minutes after local sunset, 728 PM.  10.7cm flux was 70.  Thanks
to John Pieszcynski, W2FV of Trout Lake, Washington for his tip on
problems with satellite debris during solar minimum, from Dr.  Tony
Phillips of Spaceweather.com.  More good information and tutorials
on propagation are at //k9la.us/.  Monthly propagation charts
between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at
//arrl.org/propagation.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ