‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, until a minor stream of solar
wind, according to Spaceweather.com, hit us on December 18.  This
drove the planetary A index to 13 from the low single digit values
earlier in the week.  Average planetary A index for December 12 to
18 rose to 4.6, from 3.7 over the previous 7 days, while mid
latitude A index increased from 1.9 to 4.  Predicted solar flux over
the next 45 days is 70, and weve seen this same daily 45 day flux
forecast since December 2. December 1 was the last time there was
any value in the forecast other than 70 when they predicted 69 for
December 23 through January 4. The forecast is updated daily at,
//ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .  Predicted planetary A
index from the same forecast is 8 on December 20 and 21, 5 on
December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, 5 on January 6 to 8,
8 on January 9 and 10, 5 on January 11 to 13, 12 on January 14, 10
on January 15 to 17, 5 on January 18 to 31, 8 on February 1, and 5
on January 2.  Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December
20, 2019 til January 15, 2020 from OK1HH.  Everything suggests that
we are very close to the minimum of the 11 year cycle at present
stage of development.  Naturally because of weak solar activity, the
10 meter contest last weekend was rather slow.  With a solar flux of
70 and a low K index, not much F layer propagation was expected in
the 2019 ARRL 10 M contest.  But Sunday afternoon I found a strong
10 Meter opening to Argentina and Chile from Kansas.  I set up fixed
mobile with 5 watts and a 1/4 wave whip on the car around 1800z
December 15. I didnt expect much, but heard several very loud
stations from South America on CW. I put CE2ML and LW8DQ in the log.
Signals were up to 599.  I wonder if this was a Es   TEP opening?
When I got home, I checked DXMaps. It showed what appeared to be an
Es cloud over Louisiana.  This may have supported 10 Meter
propagation on to CE and LU. Es can raise the MUF when the signal
hits the F Layer and are often strong.  A nice treat for an
otherwise slow 10 Meter Contest.  I checked 10 meters in the last
hour of the contest on Sunday looking to hand out a few QSOs. I
heard no local stations here in the Seattle area on SSB, but did
manage to work some CW operators.  The F2 opening to the south was
much better Saturday. The Geminids meteor shower did coincide with
the contest this year which saved the day especially for the big
guns.  Friday, Saturday morning and evening, and Sunday morning I
was able to work meteor scatter on CW in all directions and there
was some activity from most of the states/provinces within the
approximate 1500 mile MS range. For example, I worked all W1 except
RI and all of eastern Canada except NL, PE and NU. I worked 4 NB
stations, about 1 to 2 via brief sporadic E.  There was a short
sporadic E opening late Sunday around 2127 to 2205Z to TX, AR, IA
but again activity was low. Sunday was a real grinder with most
stations already worked. The meteor scatter died out around 1600Z
Sunday. F2 was limited to Brazil and Chile here from 2016 to 2057Z.
It was difficult to work PY even when above S5 here, I guess many
locations in PY have high noise levels.  Monthly propagation charts
between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations can be found
on the ARRL/Propagation web page.  Find better information and
tutorials on propagation on the K9LA web site.  Sunspot numbers were
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.5,
68.9, 70.3, 71, 70, 70.5, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, and 13, with a mean of
4.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 2, and 12, with a
mean of 4.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ