‰  NOW 18 WPM transition file follows‰

We saw one day, Monday, with no sunspots during this week, so
average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly from 19.6 to 18.9.
Two new sunspot groups, 2806 and 2807, appeared on the following
day.  Average daily solar flux remained about the same, increasing
slightly during the reporting week, February 25 through March 3,
from 75.7 to 76.7.  Average daily planetary A index softened
slightly from 16 to 14.7, and the middle latitude average went from
12.4 to 10.4. Geomagnetic indicators remained somewhat active due to
persistent solar wind.  The most active day was Monday, when Alaskas
High Latitude College A index reached 34.  Spaceweather.com reported
a G2 class geomagnetic storm on Monday, aided by a significant crack
in Earths magnetic field. Although activity was otherwise moderate
this week, the March 1 event was the largest storm since a G3 event
94 weeks earlier, on May 14, 2019.  Predicted solar flux for the
next 30 days is 80 on March 5, 78 on March 6, 78 on March 7 to 9, 72
on March 10 and 11, then 71, 72, 70, 71, 72 and 71 on March 12 to
17, then 73, 76, 75, 76, 78 and 81 on March 18 to 23, then 80 on
March 24 and 25, then 79, 78 and 73 on March 26 to 28, 74 on March
29 and 30, 73 on March 31 through April 1, and 74 on April 2 and 3.
Predicted planetary A index is 10, 20 and 15 on March 5 to 7, 10 on
March 8 and 9, then 8, 5, 15, 10 and 5 on March 10 to 14, then 15,
8, 5 and 18 on March 15 to 18, 20 on March 19 and 20, then 18, 12,
and 8 on March 21 to 23, 5 on March 24 to 27, then 20, 15 and 10 on
March 28 to 30, 5 on March 31 and April 1, then 12 on April 2, and 5
on April 3 to 7.  Solar wind will intensify on March 5 to 9, 12 to
14, 16 to 22, 27, 28 and 29.  This is from an email exchange with
Frank Donovan, W3LPL regarding Total Sunspot Area which is shown
daily along with SFI and SSN, or Sunspot Number, in this table
online, //ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt .  SFI is 10.7 cm
solar flux, uHem, or micro Hem, is solar micro hemispheres, and EUV
is extreme ultra violet radiation.  Here are some additional
insights regarding total sunspot area.  SFI and total sunspot area
are well correlated with each other and with EUV flux at the
wavelengths that ionize the F2 region.  Daily sunspot number is not
well correlated because tiny sunspots greatly affect it but they
have no effect on HF propagation. I usually ignore daily sunspot
numbers unless total micro Hem exceeds 200.  Today is a classic case
with daily SISLO sunspot number of 30 but total sunspot area is
under 100 micro Hem and SFI is stuck at 75.  Roughly 100 micro Hem
elevates the SFI into the mid 70s, but has only a minor effect on HF
propagation.  200 micro Hem roughly corresponds to SFI of 80 and
usually improves 17 and 15 meter propagation. But the normal daily
variability of F2 MUFs is not well correlated to SFIs of about 80
and often swamps out the expected improvements from SFI of 80.  HF
MUFs increase more consistently when the SFI approaches 90. You may
recall active region 12786 area was as high as 1000 micro Hem last
November and the SFI was above 100 for nine days. It greatly
improved 15 meter propagation during the CQWW CW DX Contest and
there was significant 10 meter DX propagation too. Daily sunspot
number varied wildly from 40 to 94 during this period mostly because
there were also three smaller active regions at during the period
when 12786 was by far the most significant contributor to SFI
greater than 100.  A NASA video of a solar flare from Science Times
can be found on //bit.ly/ .  A recent video forecast from Dr.
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, is available at, //youtu.be/ .  Sunspot
numbers were 31, 16, 14, 13, 0, 28, and 30, with a mean of 18.9.
10.7 cm flux was 80.1, 80.1, 79.2, 77.7, 71, 74.7, and 74.2, with a
mean of 76.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 11, 4, 6, 26,
20, and 23, with a mean of 14.7. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8,
3, 4, 16, 14, and 15, with a mean of 10.4.

‰  END OF 18 WPM transition file ƒ