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Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week, September 29
through October 5, as expected with the solar cycle progressing
toward a probable peak in summer 2025.  Average daily sunspot number
increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux
from 138.4 to 149.2.  Compare this to a year ago, when average daily
sunspot number was just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.  This last
week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30, one more on
October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday, October 6.
I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings
lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago
and with higher sunspot numbers.  Predicted solar flux is 156 on
October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9, then 152 and 150 on October 10
and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130 on October 15, 135 on October
16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on October 19 to 21, 150 on
October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on October 24 to 26, 145 on
October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155 on October 30 and 31, 145
on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130 on November 5 and 6, 135
on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130 on November 10 and 11
and 135 on November 12 and 13.  Predicted planetary A index is 14,
10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10, 5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October
14, 10 on October 15 and 16, then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on
October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22 to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on
October 30 through November 1, then 8 on November 2 to 10 and 10 on
November 11 and 12.  On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced A Big
Dangerous Sunspot, AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just
rotated over the suns eastern horizon.  They predict this could
produce two weeks of high solar activity.  F. K. Janda, OK1HH
reports, A week ago it seemed that following conditions would be
calmer.  This assumption was shattered after AR3112 sunspot group,
with its complex magnetic structure, began to appear on the
northeastern edge of the solar disk.  Prior to that, we expected the
earth to be hit by a fast solar wind from a CME that left the sun on
September 28, but only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity
followed on September 28 and October 2.  For more information
concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
//www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service.  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at
//k9la.us/.  Instructions for starting or ending email distribution
of ARRL bulletins are at //arrl.org/bulletins.  Sunspot numbers were
56, 74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4.  10.7 cm
flux was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a
mean of 149.2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24,
16, and 14, with a mean of 12.7.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 12,
2, 9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.

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