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REVERSED POLARITY SUNSPOT EXPLODES, A rare reversed polarity sunspot
exploded today, producing a long lasting M class solar flare and a
CME that might hit Earth. Geomagnetic storms are possible this
weekend if/when the CME arrives.  Sunspot activity and solar flux
increased over the past reporting week, April 27 through May 3.
Average daily sunspot numbers climbed from 91.4 to 114, while
average daily solar flux grew from 139.4 to 151.5.  Average daily
planetary A index dropped from 26.9 to 13.6, and average daily
middle latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 11.9.  Predicted solar
flux over the next month is 162 on May 5 and 6, 164 on May 7, 162 on
May 8 and 9, 164 on May 10 and 11, 170 on May 12 and 13, then 165,
160, 155, 150, 145 and 140 on May 14 to 19, 135 on May 20 and 21,
then 130 and 125 on May 22 and 23, 120 on May 24 and 25, then 125,
130 and 135 on May 26 to 28, 140 on May 29 through June 2, then 145,
150 and 155, 160 and 165 on June 3 to 7, 170 on June 8 and 9, then
165, 160, 155, 150, and 145 on June 10 to 14.  Predicted planetary A
index is 5 on May 5, then 12, 8, 5 and 5 on May 6 to 9, 5 on May 10
and 11, 8 on May 12, 5 on May 13 to 22, 12 and 20 on May 23 and 24,
15 on May 25 and 26, 8 and 12 on May 27 and 28, 10 on May 29 and 30,
then 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 31 through June 3, 5 on June 4 to 6, 8
on June 7 and 8, and 5 on June 9 through mid month and beyond.  On
Wednesday, May 3 Spaceweather.com posted, INTENSIFYING SOLAR
ACTIVITY, Sunspot complex AR3293 to 3296 is crackling with strong M
class solar flares, six of them today so far.  It looks like we face
continued favorable HF propagation.  Recently I wrote of my
bafflement at 10 meter propagation I observed using FT8 and
pskreporter.info, in which my signals were only being reported in
Florida. I now have a better understanding of this.  On May 1 from
1930 to 2030 UTC I saw the same thing, with reports from 2,200 to
2,700 miles away, which suggests a 500 mile wide skip distance.
Mexican stations also reported me, over that same distance in a 500
mile band. So, this suggests that it isnt just Florida, and that the
same signal is stretching out into the Gulf of Mexico and the
Atlantic Ocean, but I dont see it because there are no stations
there to receive my signal.  While long term forecasters are
beginning to come to terms with the possibility that the growth in
solar activity could slow this year and the current 25th cycle may
not be one of the high ones, solar activity has begun to increase.
Already last week, sunspot group AR3288 in the southwest with an
unstable delta class magnetic field was the source of an M7 class
solar flare on May 1 at 1309 UTC. But another M7 class eruption
occurred on May 3 in the newly emerged AR3293 in the northeastern
part of the solar disk.  Interestingly, a new group of spots, AR3296
in the northwest, violates Hales Law, as it has the opposite
magnetic polarity that is appropriate in the current 11 year cycle,
polarity should be negative on the left and positive on the right.
The solar wind speed and Earths magnetic field activity have finally
begun to decrease after a long active period, and the conditions for
shortwave propagation have finally improved, although not to the
extent we had hoped.  The links to various online stories about the
Sun, massive solar flares, radio blackout, and Aurora are available
in digital versions of this bulletin.  If you would like to make a
comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at,
k7ra at arrl.net.  When reporting observations, dont forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.  For more information concerning
radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web
page.  A detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin
is also available on this site.  An archive of past propagation
bulletins is also available.  Sunspot numbers were 136, 111, 82,
105, 87, 134, and 143, with a mean of 114. 10.7 cm flux was 140.8,
149.8, 155.8, 153.5, 147.9, 156.8, and 156.2, with a mean of 151.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 19, 20, 10, 10, 9, and 4,
with a mean of 13.6. Middle latitude A index was 20, 16, 18, 8, 8,
9, and 4, with a mean of 11.9.

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