= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Two new sunspot groups appeared on August 3, three more on August 7,
and another on August 9.  But solar activity was lower over our
reporting week, August 3 to 9, with average daily sunspot number
dropping from 154.3 to 108.9 and average solar flux from 173 to
166.4.  Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.3 to 12.3 and
average middle latitude A index from 9.3 to 10.1.  The middle
latitude A index numbers on August 3 and 4 were not available, and
are my estimates, tracking with the planetary A index and the
remaining five middle latitude readings in the rest of the week.
Predicted solar flux is 150 on August 11 and 12, then 145, 140 and
130 on August 13 to 15, 135 on August 16 and 17, 162 on August 18,
164 on August 19 and 20, 168 on August 21 to 23, then 172, 172 and
170 on August 24 to 26, 172, 172 and 174 on August 27 to 29, then
172, 172 and 170 on August 30 through September 1, then 168, 168,
166 and 164 on September 2 to 5, then 162, 162, 164 and 164 on
September 6 to 9, then 162, 162 and 160 on September 10 to 12, 162
on September 13 and 14, 164 on September 15 and 16, and 168 on
September 17 to 19.  Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 11
13, then 8, 12, 12 and 10 on August 14 to 17, 5 on August 18 to 25,
12 on August 26, then 5 on August 27 through September 4, 12 on
September 5, and 5 on September 6 to 21.  On August 9
Spaceweather.com wrote about a geomagnetic storm in 1940 that sounds
similar to the infamous Carrington Event.  Two CMEs hit Earth 109
minutes apart.  Sometimes you need to take a break and thats why
this time the commentary covers the last two weeks instead of one.
During these weeks, solar activity was often elevated.  M and X
class flares and CMEs occurred frequently.  The Earth was lucky not
to be hit by the fiery loop that ejected from the Sun from AR3372
during the M4 class eruption on October 28 at 1558 UTC.  Energetic
protons from the Sun were hitting Earths atmosphere for a
significant part of the period, a radiation storm class S1.  The
source this time was beyond the northwestern edge of the solar disk
and was most likely an X class flare.  The consequence was also
absorption in the polar cap, PCA.  On August 1, the CME was very
likely to hit the Earths magnetic field, but instead we only
registered a hint of a near Earth flyby around 1600 UTC.  We
expected another CME arrival and a smaller G1 class geomagnetic
storm on August 4 and 5. It happened, and the magnetic filament
connecting the two sunspots exploded on August 5 around 0500 UTC,
hurling the CME into space.  An X1.6 class eruption was observed in
AR3386 on August 5 at 2221 UTC.  The CME did not head directly
toward Earth, so there were fewer disturbances than expected with
the current solar activity.  But the opposite was true for shortwave
propagation conditions, they were mostly worse.  On Thursday, August
10 at 2200 UTC on 12 meters FT8 the only reports from North America
I saw were in Florida, 2500 to 2700 miles away, plus NH6V in Hawaii,
and VK5HW and VK4TUX in Australia at 8367 and 7402 miles.  I have no
idea what causes this seemingly restricted propagation.  The antenna
at my end was an end fed 32 foot wire, about .85 wavelength,
partially indoors.  For more information concerning shortwave radio
propagation, see //www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical
Information Service.  Also, check this article from September, 2002
QST //www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at //arrl.org/bulletins.  Sunspot numbers were 124,
122, 100, 97, 101, 115, and 103, with a mean of 108.9.  10.7 cm flux
was 162.9, 170.8, 175.8, 173.5, 169.7, 158.9, and 153.4, with a mean
of 166.4.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 13, 36, 4, 12, 8,
and 7, with a mean of 12.3.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 24,
4, 11, 7, and 8, with a mean of 10.1.

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