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Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 October 20 and 21, 132 on
October 22 and 23, 134 on October 24 and 25, 136 on October 26, 145
on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29 through November 5, 140 on
November 6 to 9, 135 on November 10 and 11, 145 and 140 on November
12 and 13, 135 on November 14 and 15, then 140 on November 16 to 18,
135 and 140 on November 19 and 20, 145 on November 21 to 24, and 150
through the end of the month.  Predicted planetary A index is 22,
14, 12, 10 and 8 on October 20 to 24, 5 on October 25 and 26, 8 on
October 27 to 30, 10 and 12 on October 31 through November 1, 5 on
November 2 to 8, 12 and 8 on November 9 and 10, 5 on November 11 and
12, 12 on November 13 and 14, then 10 and 8 on November 15 and 16, 5
on November 17 to 22, and 8 on November 23 to 26.  In the last ten
days, the number of sunspot groups has dropped from ten to three. At
the same time the solar flux has dropped significantly from 166 to
135. The last two slightly larger solar flares were observed on 16
October. The larger of the two occurred in AR3467. The magnetic
filament associated with it exploded and blew a CME into space.
According to NASAs models, while it didnt head directly for Earth,
it still likely hit it on October 18, the original estimate was that
it would happen a day later. Which, while not enough to cause a
geomagnetic storm, was enough to reach an unsettled state.  This was
followed by an erratic MUF from 18 October and then a decline on 19
October. These lines are written at a time when short periods of G1
Minor geomagnetic storms are not yet ruled out on 19 October, with a
possible duration into the first half of 20 October UT.  In the
Atlantic, we have Tammy which strengthened into a Catagory 1
Hurricane overnight.  In the Eastern Pacific, we have Hurricane
Norma. Once a Catagory 4 Hurricane, it is now a Catagory 3 storm,
threatening Cabo San Lucas at the southern tip of Baja California.
We will activate HWN this afternoon at 500 PM EDT, 2100 UTC, on
14.325 MHz USB. This afternoon and early evening, we will be lining
up reporting stations in the path of Hurricane Tammy in the northern
Leeward Islands and for Hurricane Norma in Southern Baja California.
We will close operations at 800 PM EDT, 0000 UTC.  On Saturday, we
will resume operations on 14.325 MHz USB at 800 AM EDT, 1200 UTC,
and remain active until no longer required. If propagation dictates,
we will utilize operations on 7.268 MHz LSB.  Graves thanked radio
amateurs for cooperating with the net over use of 14.325 MHz and
7.268 MHz.  In addition to HWN, the Hurricane VoIP Net and the
WX4NHC amateur radio station at the National Hurricane Center are
also planning to activate.  WX4NHC will be activating tomorrow,
Saturday, morning at 800 AM EDT for Hurricane Tammys approach to
Guadeloupe and later possible landfall on the Islands of Antigua and
Barbuda. We will also be monitoring all reports for Hurricane Norma
forecast to make landfall as a hurricane in Baja California Mexico
tomorrow afternoon, said Julio Ripoll, WD4R, at WX4NHC.  Net
operations will be on Echolink 7203, IRLP 9219, and a number of
other resources, such as Allstar, Hamshack Hotline, Fusion, etc.
provided at, www.sunflowernet.us. Additionally, Winlink users may
message KC5FM or use KC5FM 9 on APRS.

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