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Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet last weekend, good conditions
for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes. But there was much more geomagnetic
activity toward the end of the reporting week, when the planetary A
index jumped to 30 and Alaskas College A index reached 60, a very
high value.  Solar activity really picked up in the past few days,
with three new sunspot groups on November 17, 18 and 19, then six
new groups on November 20, another on November 21, and three more
groups on Thanksgiving Day, November 23.  Sunspot numbers on Tuesday
through Thursday, November 21 to 23 were 138, 174 and 176, and the
total sunspot area on Thursday was 1560 millionths of the solar
surface, the largest in a long time.  Average daily sunspot number
rose from 80.1 to 83.3, while average daily solar flux went from
133.8 to 146. Average daily planetary A index went from 10.4 to
10.1, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6 to 7.3.  Predicted solar
flux is 195 on November 24 to 28, then 190, 185, 155 and 152 on
November 29 through December 2, then 150, 148 and 145 on December 3
to 5, 140 on December 6 to 8, 145 on December 9 and 10, 140 on
December 11 to 17, 145 on December 18 to 23, 148 on December 24, 152
on December 25 and 26, 155 on December 27 and 28, then 152, 150 and
148 on December 29 to 31.  Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10
on November 24 and 25, 15 on November 26 and 27, 8 on November 28, 5
on November 29 through December 3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on
December 4 to 7, 5 on December 8 to 11, then 10 and 8 on December 12
and 13, 5 on December 14 to 17, then 10, 15 and 12 on December 18 to
20, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on December 21 to 25, and 5 on December 26
to 30.  Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the
Earths Ionosphere November 24 to 30, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH,
After passing through a twenty seven day low in mid November, solar
activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave propagation
conditions were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.  In the
second half of last week, the Earths magnetic field was calm despite
the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on November 16, which
threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We expected the CME to
arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet days followed on
November 19 and 20. Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm
in the Earths magnetosphere, propagation conditions did not improve
until November 20.  Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the
onset of the geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive
phases of development with increases in MUF and an overall
improvement in conditions, at intervals of 1000 to 1300 UTC and 1600
to 1900 UTC.  The following evolution could be expected, there was a
deterioration of propagation conditions in the negative phase of the
disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration
was short lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar
activity, an improvement occurred already on 23 November.  Although
solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal hole near
the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the solar disk.
This configuration will cause further increases in solar wind speed
and therefore more frequent alternation of better and worse days.
Despite a predicted CME impact over the weekend of November 18 and
19 missing the Earth, the geomagnetic field had minor storm
conditions November 22. The K index went to 5. This was enough of a
nudge for the F2 MUF to climb above 50 MHz to South America.  I had
several HC stations in around 1503z including HC2AO, HC2FG and
HC1MD/2. The opening lasted about 45 minutes then faded. Later F2
appeared to the Caribbean area. I logged PJ4MM in FK52 at 1615z.
Links to articles on current conditions, the ARRL 160 and ARRL 10
Meter contests, articles on large sunsposts, and videos from Dr.
Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, as well as other websites mentioned in this
bulletin can be found in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions
of 2023 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047.  Sunspot numbers were
28, 26, 39, 51, 127, 138, and 174, with a mean of 83.3. 10.7 cm flux
was 117.9, 119.6, 127.1, 140.1, 156.5, 171.5, and 189.5, with a mean
of 146.  Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 3, 4, 5, 18, and
30, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 3, 2, 3, 4,
15, and 17, with a mean of 7.3.

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