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visitor operations are Monday through Friday, at 1500 to 2045z, or
10 AM to 345 PM EST.  the revolving schedule of code practices and
bulletins, both digital and phone, begin Monday through Friday at
2100z, or 4 PM EST, until 0500z, or 12 AM EST.  Audio from W1AWs CW
code practices, CW/digital bulletins and phone bulletin is available
using EchoLink via the W1AW Conference Server named W1AWBDCT.  The
monthly W1AW Qualifying Runs are presented here as well.  The audio
is sent in real time and runs concurrently with W1AWs regular
transmission schedule.  All users who connect to the conference
server are muted.  Please note that any questions or comments about
this server should not be sent via the Text window in EchoLink.
Please direct any questions or comments via email to, w1aw at
arrl.org .  The weekly W1AW and monthly West Coast Qualifying Runs
are sent on the normal CW frequencies used for both code practice
and bulletin transmissions.  West Coast Qualifying Run stations may
also use 3590 kHz.  Please note a W1AW Qualifying Run replaces a
regularly scheduled code practice transmission on any particular day
and time.  The complete w1aw operating schedule may be found on page
28 in the January 2024 issue of QST or from the W1AW web page at,
www.arrl.org/w1aw .  The recent reporting week, December 21 to 27,
saw counter intuitive solar numbers, with solar flux rising but
sunspot numbers in decline.  This happens from time to time.
Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4.  Only
three new sunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on
December 27.  On Thursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and
the sunspot number increased from 78 to 83.  Average daily solar
flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6.  Predicted solar flux over the next
month is 145 on December 29 to 30, 140 on December 31 to January 1,
2024, 135 on January 2 to 4, 150 on January 5 to 7, 155 on January 8
to 11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on January 12 to 16, 180 on
January 17 to 21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145 on January 22 to
26, then 140 on January 27 to 30, and 150 on January 31 to February
3.  Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December
29 through January 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3 to 7, then 10, 10
and 8 on January 8 to 10, then 5 on January 11 to 25, then 12, 10,
10 and 8 on January 26 to 29, and 5 on January 30 through February
3.  Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths
Ionosphere, December 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.  There are
active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but whose
magnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar flares, up
to moderately important ones.  CMEs are no exception, but they may
not hit the Earth at all.  On December 24, three moderate importance
flares were observed.  At least one of them produced a CME.  Based
on measurements of its velocity, the collision with Earth was
predicted to December 27.  However, nothing happened, and despite
the extension of the prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a
day, calm continued on 28 December.  For many days now there has
been such a large active region on the Suns far side that it is
affecting the vibration of the entire Sun.  In addition, it has been
observed by NASAs Mars Perseverance rover camera.  While it is
primarily designed to see if there is dust in the air, it can see
large sunspots and, most importantly, the suns far side is now
visible from Mars.  So we await the return of AR3514, which will
rise in the northeastern solar disk shortly after the New Year.  It
will be a significant contributor to the further rise in solar
activity in the days ahead.  Furthermore, longer term forecasts are
calling for high solar activity in the second half of January. So
perhaps we will finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions.
Links to articles covering recent solar activity, the sun as a
revolving field motor, auroras, 2023 solar activity, a cosmic
spectacle, larger storms, and Tamitha Skovs weekly report can be
found in internet, teleprinter and packet versions of 2023
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP052.  Sunspot numbers were 138,
157, 123, 113, 98, 94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4.  10.7 cm flux
was 193.6, 186.7, 174.2, 183.4, 166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean
of 172.6.  Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and
4, with a mean of 5.4.  Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 5, 7, 2,
4, and 4, with a mean of 4.

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