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Four new sunspot groups appeared on January 5, another two on
January 7 and two more on January 9.  Average daily sunspot numbers
rose from 63.4 to 146.1, and average daily solar flux went from
141.9 to 163.3.  Geomagnetic indicators declined, with planetary A
index going from 6.7 to 4.9, and middle latitude numbers from 5.1 to
4.3.  Predicted solar flux over the near term is 192, 190 and 186 on
January 12 to 14, 188 on January 15 and 16, then 186 and 184 on
January 17 and 18, 150 on January 19 to 21, then 145 and 140 on
January 22 and 23, 135 on January 24 to 26, then 130 and 135 on
January 27 and 28, 140 on January 29 to 31, then 150, 160, 165 and
150 on February 1 to 4, 155 on February 5 and 6, 160 on February 7,
then 155 on February 8 to 10, then 160, 165, 160 and 155 on February
11 to 14, and 150 on February 15 to 17.  Predicted planetary A index
is 5 on January 12, 8 on January 13 and 14, 5, 5, 10 and 8 on
January 15 to 18, 5 on January 19 to 27, 8 on January 28 to 30, 5 on
January 31 through February 3, then 10, 10 and 8 on February 4 to 6,
and 5 on February 7 to 22.  Since the beginning of the 25th Solar
Cycle, December 2019, we observed 782 sunspot groups, and almost
half of them, 361, last year. Most forecasters believe that the
solar maximum will occur in 2024.  The exception is the Bureau of
Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre, whose
OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES table, published on January 4,
already showed the probable highest SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER at 126.4
last November.  It should fall further until R equals 15.5 in
December 2029. But I believe solar activity will continue to rise
and that we have a second maximum ahead of us, no later than 2025.
Now there is usually at least one active region on the Sun with an
unstable magnetic field beta gamma, capable of producing flares of
moderate magnitude, possibly with CMEs.  Any large flares would be
the exception, and proton flares would be even more of an exception.
Among the more significant moderate magnitude eruptions accompanied
by CMEs is the M3.8/2n class event of 4 January at 0155 UTC, which
produced the Dellinger event, SWF or Shortwave Fadeout, over
Australia and the surrounding Pacific Ocean. There was silence at
frequencies below 20 MHz for more than 30 minutes. This flare took
place in the northeastern solar disk, N04E39, while the CME missed
the Earth.  Other developments on the Sun were quieter, which
contributed to a relatively long interval of geomagnetic quiet since
4 January onwards. At the same time, the intensity of solar
radiation increased. The result was progressively improving
shortwave propagation. But seven major active regions can now be
counted on the Suns far side. Once they emerge onto the solar disk
the situation will change.  Sunspot numbers were 64, 121, 149, 171,
152, 183, and 183, with a mean of 146.1. 10.7 cm flux was 125.8,
152.7, 159.4, 167.1, 176.2, 175.9, and 186, with a mean of 163.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, and 7, with a
mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7,
with a mean of 4.3.  The ARRL responded to the Federal
Communications Commissions request for comments on removing the
symbol, or baud, rate restrictions that apply to data communications
on the LF bands and the VHF and UHF bands below 450 MHz. The FCC
also requested comments on the bandwidth limits applicable to those
bands.  The FCCs Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking sought
comments on updating the other amateur bands on which its symbol
rate limits continue to throttle faster data rates. The subject
bands are the LF bands, 2200 and 630 meters, and the VHF and UHF
bands below 450 MHz.  ARRLs comments noted that CW operation is
protected in the lower 100 kHz of the 6  and 2 meter bands and will
continue to be so protected, but otherwise, all modes are permitted
in the remainder of the subject VHF and UHF bands with only the data
modes subject to bandwidth restrictions below 450 MHz that vary by
band.  The public period for reply comments remains open until
January 22, 2024. An ARRL guide to filing comments is available at,
//www.arrl.org/ .

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