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Just four new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, January 18
to 24, one on each day, January 18 to 21.  But it looks like we may
see flares, CMEs and geomagnetic storms over the next few days.
Spaceweather.com identified sunspot group AR3561 as hyperactive.
Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined, and geomagnetic indicators
rose, but only slightly.  Average daily sunspot number dropped from
167.3 to 130.6, and average solar flux from 184.1 to 173.3.  Average
planetary A index rose from 5 to 7.4, and middle latitude numbers
from 3.9 to 5.1.  Looking ahead, we may see a short term peak in
solar flux centered around February 11, and another about six weeks
from now.  Predicted solar flux is 160 on January 26 and 27, 150 on
January 28 to February 1, 170 on February 2, 175 on February 3 and
4, 180 on February 5 to 8, then 190, 190 and 195 on February 9 to
11, then 190 and 185 on February 12 and 13.  Then its 180 on
February 14 and 15, then 175.  170, 175, 175, 170, 175, and 170 on
February 16 to 22, then 165, 160, 165, 160 and 165 on February 23 to
27, 170 on February 28 and 29, and 175 on March 1 and 2, then 180 on
March 3 to 6.  Predicted planetary A index is 25, 30, 18, 10 and 8
on January 26 to 30, then 5 on January 31 through February 16, and 8
on February 17 and 18, then 5 on February 19 to 24, then 10, 12 and
10 on February 25 to 27, and 5 on February 28 through early March.
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths
Ionosphere for January 25, 2024 from OK1HH, At the present stage of
the 11 year solar cycle, there are five to thirteen groups of spots,
or active regions, on the Sun. In three of them, we can observe such
magnetic configuration that allows the development of a larger
flare, possibly with a CME.  On the other hand, there are relatively
few coronal holes on the Sun, reducing the likelihood of Earth being
hit by an enhanced solar wind and then geomagnetic disturbances.
Therefore, the evolution is quieter, and the level of shortwave
propagation is a little calmer than we might otherwise expect.
Glenn Packard, K4ZOT reported from Atlanta, Georgia on January 22
that he worked New Zealand on 6 meter FT8 at 0257 UTC, I just
happened to tune to 6M tonight after being disappointed on 6M for
the Winter season.  Then Bloom, ZL4TT, comes through at R minus 19
and me at minus 08.  Just WOW.  Called once and he came right back
to me.  Band then went dead after the contact.  Amateur Radio still
has surprised this Olde Man.  Links to articles about Solar Cycle 25
nearing its peak, recent Solar activity, A NOAA article about Solar
Cycle Progression, Solar Indices, Solar information, and the latest
report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for January 22, can be found
in teleprinter, packet, and internet versions of 2024 propagation
forecast bulletin arlp004.  Send your tips, reports, observations,
questions, and comments to k7ra at arrl.net. When reporting
observations, dont forget to tell us which mode you were operating.
Sunspot numbers were 113, 137, 144, 150, 139, 123, and 108, with a
mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was 162.3, 157.4, 166.3, 178.5, 196.1,
180.3, and 172, with a mean of 173.3. Estimated planetary A indices
were 6, 8, 6, 6, 9, 7, and 10, with a mean of 7.4. Middle latitude A
index was 4, 5, 4, 5, 6, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1.

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