= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

Over the recent reporting week, February 1 to 7, ten new sunspot
groups emerged, five on February 1, one on February 2, another on
February 3, two on February 5, and one more on February 7. On
February 8, two more emerged.  Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose,
and geomagnetic numbers were quiet.  Average daily sunspot number
increased from 71.8 to 142.3, and average daily solar flux from
145.4 to 165.5.  Geomagnetic conditions were quieter. Average daily
planetary A index decreased from 6.9 to 5.1, and average middle
latitude numbers from 5.6 to 4.4.  Now lets see what the outlook
might be over the next few weeks, with data from the US Air Force
and NOAA.  Predicted solar flux is 180 on February 9, then 175, 175,
180 and 175 on February 10 to 13, 178 on February 14 and 15, and 170
on February 16.  Then it is 160 on February 17 to 21, then 165 and
160 on February 22 and 23, 150 on February 24 to 28, then 155, 160
and 165 on February 29 through March 2, 170 on March 3 to 5, 160 on
March 6 to 9, 170 on March 10, 165 on March 11 to 13, 170 on March
14, and 160 on March 15 to 19.  Predicted planetary A index is 15,
12 and 8 on February 9 to 11, 5 on February 12 to 25, then 8 and 7
on February 26 and 27, then 5 on February 28 through March 2, 10 on
March 3 and 4, 5 on March 5 to 23.  Weekly Commentary on the Sun,
the Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere, February 8, 2024, from
F.K. Janda, OK1HH, As recently as early January, it appeared that
the peak of the current eleven year cycle would soon be passed, or
perhaps even passed late last year. But Januarys upsurge in solar
activity led us astray, and February, it seems, could be even more
lively.  Surprise number two is that although we are seeing moderate
flares on the Sun, some of which are proton flares and a few of
which are accompanied by CMEs, the solar wind around the Earth is
intensifying little.  Surprise number three, though related to the
previous one, is the decline in the Earths magnetic field activity
for more than a month.  Finally, surprise number four is that
although solar activity is relatively high, while geomagnetic
activity is low, the shortwave propagation conditions, as defined at
frequencies of 3 to 30 MHz, are not nearly as good as we have become
accustomed to during decades of similar developments.  Even from the
proton solar flare with CME ejection observed on February 6, we
expect the Earth to be hit by an enhanced solar wind with a
subsequent, at least slight, rise in geomagnetic field activity.
This should occur between evening hours of UTC 9 February, and the
following morning. So, the question is slowly emerging whether it
will be more of a surprise if the disturbance starts or if it
doesnt.  Links to articles about Solar Cycle 25, recent Solar
activity, radio blackouts, flares, the Suns poles, radio
propagation, solar indices, and the latest report from Dr. Tamitha
Skov, WX6SWW, can be found in teleprinter, packet, and internet
versions of 2024 propagation forecast bulletin arlp006.  Send your
tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra at
arrl.net. When reporting observations, dont forget to tell us which
mode you were operating.  Sunspot numbers were 113, 131, 123, 138,
152, 175, and 164, with a mean of 142.3. 10.7 cm flux was 136.9,
142.6, 156.4, 170.4, 173.4, 190.3, and 188.4, with a mean of 165.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 3, 6, 7, 8, and 4, with a
mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 2, 5, 6, 8, and 3,
with a mean of 4.4.

= END OF 18 WPM transition file <