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Thanks to Carl, K9LA for contributing to this week's bulletin.
ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2220 UTC/10 OCTOBER
2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.  A halo CME
first observed on 09 Oct arrived at Earth at 10/1515UT, resulting in
G4 geomagnetic conditions on 10 Oct.  G4 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 11 Oct, with a chance of G5.  G2 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 12 Oct, with a chance of G3 due to ongoing CME
effects.  INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL
MASS EJECTION FROM 11 to 13 OCTOBER 2024 Only four new sunspot
groups emerged this week.  The first was on October 4, another on
October 6 and two more on October 7.  Average daily sunspot number
moved from 160, Sep 26 to Oct 2 period, to 182, Oct 3 to 9 period,
and average daily solar flux from 199 to 270.  Predicted solar flux
is 215 on October 11 to 13, 210 on October 14 and 15, 200 and 205 on
October 16 and 17, and 170 on October 18 to 21, then 175, 180, 185,
190, 195, 215, 230, 240, 250 and 255 on October 22 to 31, then 230
and 215 on November 1 and 2, then 205 on November 3 and 4, 200 and
185 on November 5 and 6, 175 on November 7 to 12, and 170 on
November 13 to 17.  Predicted planetary A index reveals a huge
disturbance at 122, 42, 12 and 12 on October 11 to 14, 5 on October
15 to 21, then 15, 10, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on October 22 to 27, 5 on
October 28 til November 2, 12 and 8 on November 3 and 4, 5 on
November 5 to 7, 8 on November 8, and 5 on November 9 to 17.  Weekly
Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere
for October 10, 2024 from OK1HH.  During the first ten days of
October, the number of sunspot groups dropped from eleven to five,
but the eruptive activity of the two largest sunspot groups did not
decrease.  Not only are moderate flares, M classes, of which 34 were
observed, frequent, but large events, X classes, are also relatively
common, five effects were observed, including one proton flare on 9
October.  Several CMEs, coronal mass ejections, were also observed.
After the two most active regions in particular moved to the western
half of the solar disk, geomagnetic activity has increased
significantly since 6 October.  The most significant impacts on the
state of the ionosphere were on 8 October.  This will be followed by
a very slow return to normal, lasting several days.  A calm
development can be expected after mid October.  Send your tips,
reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra at arrl.net.
When reporting observations, dont forget to tell us which mode you
were operating.  For more information concerning shortwave radio
propagation, see //www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page.  More good information and tutorials
on propagation are at //k9la.us/ Also check Understanding Solar
Indices from September 2002 QST.  Instructions for starting or
ending email subscriptions to ARRL bulletins are at
//arrl.org/bulletins.  Sunspot numbers were 194, 229, 180, 173, 167,
164, and 165, with a mean of 182.  10.7 cm flux was 245, 312, 291,
277, 265, 277 and 225, with a mean of 270.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 8, 8, 7, 16, 55, 58, and 19, with a mean of 24.4.
Middle latitude A Index was 8, 6, 8, 13, 33, 29, and 15, with a mean
of 16.

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