The K7VVV Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, Jan 17, 2003--Solar flux and sunspot numbers peaked early in the week and are headed downward again. Average daily solar flux rose to 173.6 this week from 149.4 last, and sunspot number averages went from 137.9 to 200.9. Activity should continue declining, with Friday through Monday values of 140, 135, 135 and 125, reaching a minimum around 115 from January 25-28. Geomagnetic activity for the near term is predicted to be quiet to unsettled.

You can see the general downward trend in activity in the charts on the Web site of Mark Downing, WM7D. There is tremendous variability, but the overall trend is pretty clear. Over the next few years we'll see a dramatic drop. Current projections from NOAA show the minimum solar flux between September 2006 and April, 2007, and sunspot minimum around December 2006 to January 2007.

Sunspot numbers for January 9 through 15 were 206, 199, 238, 232, 182, 176 and 173, with a mean of 200.9. The 10.7-cm flux was 182.9, 184.7, 188.8, 173.4, 171.8, 164 and 149.9, with a mean of 173.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 10, 10, 11, 8, 10 and 8, with a mean of 9.1.

Amateur solar observer Tad Cook, K7VVV Seattle, Washington, provides this weekly report on solar conditions and propagation. This report also is available via W1AW every Friday, and an abbreviated version also appears in The ARRL Letter. Readers may contact the author via k7vvv@arrl.net.

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