Ernesto Could Make Landfall as Hurricane; Carolinas, Virginia Get Ready

The 1800 UTC position and predicted path (click link for latest graphic) of Tropical Storm Ernesto. [NOAA Graphic]

NEWINGTON, CT, Aug 31, 2006 -- Tropical Storm Ernesto (click link for latest forecast) could be a Category 1 hurricane again by the time it reaches the coastline of the Carolinas later today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says. Now over open water off Georgia and South Carolina, Ernesto is moving to the north-northeast at about 17 MPH.

"Data from a NOAA P-3 reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 MPH with higher gusts," the NHC says. "Ernesto could strengthen a little more and reach the coast as a hurricane." That's just shy of the 74 MPH minimum to qualify as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Coastal States Prepare

South Carolina Emergency Management Division (SCEMD) has asked ARES/RACES to staff the state Emergency Operations Center (EOC), reports South Carolina ARRL Section Emergency Coordinator and State RACES Officer Charlie Miller, AE4UX.

"We plan to staff the SEOC on a 24-hour-a-day basis until no longer needed," Miller told ARRL earlier today. "Although this storm is only a tropical storm at this time, we have all seen storms intensify quickly."

If the current predicted path holds, the storm will make landfall again along the northeastern South Carolina coastline later today before continuing into the midsections of North Carolina and Virginia.

North Carolina SEC Bernie Nobles, WA4MOK, told ARRL today that ARES/RACES is standing by, although "the situation could change at any time." The North Carolina Division of Emergency Management has activated, Nobles said, and Amateur Radio volunteers may be needed after the storm passes through, given the possibility of extensive flooding.

Nobles said the nightly North Carolina statewide emergency net on 3.923/7.232 at 7:30 PM Eastern Time may be extended as a result of Ernesto's approach.

Preparations are under way in Virginia to greet Ernesto, but Virginia ARRL Section Manager Glenn Sage, W4GHS, says another storm system already dumped more than three inches of rain over parts of Southwest Virginia since Wednesday.

"These areas along the Dan River basin will be most at risk for flooding in the western part of the state," Sage told ARRL. "The center of the storm is projected to pass near the Richmond area, and we will be monitoring the situation there." The Virginia Department of Emergency Management has not posted any plans to activate the state EOC, he said.

Virginia SEC Henry Wyatt, K4YCR, says Chesterfield County ARES -- in the Richmond area --is standing by to support the American Red Cross if necessary. "This is in preparation for possible flooding in the Richmond area due to heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto," Wyatt said.

Chesterfield County ARES has secured permission to use the 146.88 MHz (CTCSS 74.4 Hz) Richmond Amateur Telecommunications Society repeater for this event. "All interests should monitor the Richmond repeater through this weekend," Wyatt advised.

Hurricane Watch Remains in Effect

As of 1800 UTC, a hurricane watch remained in effect from South Santee River in South Carolina to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. A tropical storm warning remained in effect from the Savannah River northward to Currituck Beach Light, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

The storm's center was some 180 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina, and 90 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles, mainly to the north and east of the storm's center.

The NHC predicts possible coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow along the coastlines of the Carolinas.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeastern South Carolina into the Middle Atlantic states and the southern and central Appalachians, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Saturday.

"These amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods," the NHC said. "Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina late this afternoon and tonight."

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