Average daily sunspot numbers for the January 22-28 period rose from 61.9 on the previous seven days to 89.1. Average daily solar flux rose from 126.2 to 136.8 over the same period.

There were two new sunspot regions on January 22, another one on January 23 and again on January 25, four more on January 26, another two on January 28 and one more on January 29.

The average daily solar flux for the following seven days, January 29 through February 4 is predicted to be 163.6, nearly 27 points higher than the previous week.

Predicted solar flux is 170 on January 30 through February 1, then 165 and 155 on February 2-3, 150 on February 4-5, 140 on February 6, 130 on February 7-9, 125 on February 10-11, 120 on February 12-13, and 125 on February 14-16. Flux values then reach of low of 115 on February 18, then a high of 135 on February 26-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on January 30 through February 1, 12 on February 2, 10 on February 3-7, 8 on February 8-9, 5 on February 10-14, 12 on February 15, and 10 on February 16-18.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH, blesses us with his geomagnetic prediction from the Czech Propagation Interest Group. He sees quiet to unsettled conditions January 30, disturbed conditions January 31, active to disturbed February 1, quiet to active February 2, disturbed on February 3, mostly quiet on February 4, quiet to unsettled February 5, quiet to active February 6, active to disturbed February 7, quiet on February 8, mostly quiet February 9-15, quiet on February 16, quiet to active February 17, mostly quiet February 18-19, quiet on February 20, mostly quiet February 21, quiet to active February 22-23, active to disturbed February 24, disturbed on February 25.

OK1HH expects an increase (he calls it an amplification) of solar wind on February 3-4, 19-20, and 25. Also note that OK1HH refers to the “Czech Propagation Interested Group”, but I suspect that “interest group” is probably a better translation to American English.


Mike Gilmer, N2MG, of Vernon, New York found a bad URL in some versions of last week’s bulletin ARLP004. The correct URL for the Wikipedia list of solar cycles is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

Somehow a .png extension was added to the bulletin in the W1AW archive and the one that was emailed to readers.  But the link from the ARRL home page had the correct URL. The bulletin in the archive has been updated.

Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who lives way off the grid in North Central Washington State, sends this article about experimental licenses granted by the FCC: http://www.tvtechnology.com/distribution/0099/list-of-experimental-licenses-reveals-interesting-hf-data-comm-experiments/274152


We received no reports from readers this week about propagation or on the air activity.


For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for January 22 through 28 were 63, 70, 57, 65, 110, 119, and 140, with a mean of 89.1. 10.7 cm flux was 120.3, 121.1, 125.3, 126.6, 147, 158.1, and 159.3, with a mean of 136.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 9, 7, 6, 16, 12, and 7, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 8, 5, 3, 12, 9, and 5, with a mean of 7.3.