SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de KT7H

ZCZC AP68
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  November 22, 1996
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de KT7H

Solar activity is up.  Average sunspot numbers were 13 points above
the average for the previous week, and solar flux averaged about 3
points higher.  Could this signal the upturn in activity we have
been waiting for?

Solar flux should drift down toward about 70 over the next few
days, and remain there until after the first week in December, when
it should crawl up to the mid-seventies again.  No stormy periods
are forecast over the next 30 days, but of course this is based on
previous solar rotations, and cannot predict any new coronal holes
on the Sun.

Here are some path projections for the CQ Worldwide DX contest this
weekend:

From the East coast of the USA:

To Western Europe, check 80 meters from 2030z to 0930z, 40 meters
from 1830z to 2300z and from 0330z to 0730z, and 20 meters from
1400z to 1730z.  To South Africa check 80 from 2130z to 0400z, 40
meters from 2030z to 0430z, 20 meters from 1300z to 1830z, and 15
meters from 1430z to 1730z, particularly around 1600z.  To South
America check 80 from 2300z to 0900z, 40 from 2200z to 1000z, 20
from 1400z to 2100z and 15 from 1600z to 1800z.  To the Caribbean
check 80 from 2100z to 1200z, 40 around the clock except from 1100z
to 1230z, 20 from 1300z to 1500z and 1800z to 2100z, and 15 from
1530z to 1800z.  To Australia check 80 from 0900z to 1200z, 40 from
0800z to 1200z, and 20 around 1400z to 1500z.  To Japan check 80
around 0700z to 1230z, and 40 from 0630z to 1000z and 1230z to
1400z.

From the USA West coast:

To Western Europe, check 80 meters from 0000z to 0930z, 40 from
2300z to 0230z and 0600z to 1200z and 20 around 1600 to 1700z.  To
South Africa check 80 from 0100z to 0330z, 40 from 0000z to 0230z,
20 from 1730z to 2300z and 15 around 1830z to 2030z.  To South
America check 80 from 0130z to 0930z, 40 from 0030z to 1000z, 20
from 2000z to 0030z, 15 from 1730z to 2130z, and possibly 10 from
1830z to 2200z.  To the Caribbean check 80 from 0000z to 1130z, 40
from 2300z to 1300z, 20 from 1630z to 2200z, and 15 from 1730z to
2000z.  To Australia check 80 from 0830z to 1500z, 40 from 0800z to
1530z, 20 from 1630z to 1830z, and 15 from 2100z to 0030z.  To
Japan check 80 from 0630z to 1600z, 40 from 0530z to 1700z, 20 from
2130z to 0030z, and 15 around 2300z.

Sunspot Numbers for November 14 through 20 were 13, 29, 26, 53, 24,
13 and 11, with a mean of 24.1.  10.7 cm flux was 73.7, 73.6, 73.9,
72, 74.1, 74.4 and 74.5, with a mean of 73.7.  Planetary A indices
for the same period were 12, 11, 3, 12, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean
of 9.1.
NNNN
/EX