SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 23, 2005
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

This bulletin is early because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the
United States.  The usual data appearing at the bottom of this
weekly bulletin will come out in an additional bulletin on Monday,
November 28, 2005.

Geomagnetic indicators, the A and K index, have remained low.  This
is good for HF propagation and with low sunspot numbers lowering the
MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency), perfect for long range communication
on 160 and 80 meters.

Average sunspot numbers in the six days since the last bulletin were
50.3, nearly 30 points above the average reported in the previous
bulletin.  The daily solar flux went just above 100 on November
17-19, the days when large sunspot 822 was passing across the center
of the visible solar disk, and exerting maximum influence.

Solar flux is expected to decline over the next week.  Predicted
solar flux over the next few days is 95, 90 and 85 for November
23-25, and 80 through the end of the month.  Geomagnetic numbers
(and disturbances) are expected to remain low.  Expect mid latitude
K index of 3 or less and A index at 10 or below until the end of the
month, when we may see higher geomagnetic activity around November
30 to December 1.

More mail was received this week about 10 meter propagation and
beacon stations.

Kevin Seeger, WD0AVV lives in Southern California and thinks more of
us should pay attention to ten meters, even though we are headed
toward the bottom of the solar cycle.  He says the first thing he
does when checking ten is to listen for beacon stations, which are
mostly between 28.2 and 28.3 MHz.  Since they transmit constantly
from many locations, this is a good indicator of openings that might
only occur between your location and some particular area or region.

Kevin says that on November 5 at 8:00 AM local time (1600z) he
copied these beacon stations, and at the end of the day he was still
receiving most of them:

K4UKB  28.276 
W4TIY  28.272 
K4AIS  28.270 
W3HH   28.269 
W4JPL  28.253 
KG4YUV 28.253 
WK4DS  28.222

If you look up the call sign of a beacon station on www.qrz.com,
you'll see that often there are links to personal web pages and
information about the beacon operation.  For instance, WK4DS, David
Saylors, has links showing his 2 watt beacon which is a popular low
power 10 meter mobile transceiver hooked to a keyer.  There are also
links showing some impressive telegraph keys that David builds in
his machine shop in Trenton, Georgia.

Using Google you can find many resources on ten meter beacons.  The
Northern California DX Foundation runs their impressive worldwide
beacon network on 28.2 MHz, and here you can quickly judge worldwide
ten meter propagation.  The Ten-Ten International Net, which has
been energetically promoting ten meters for over 40 years, has an
extensive list of ten meter beacon stations at
http://www.ten-ten.org/beacons.html.  By the way, the author of your
bulletin was introduced to Ten-Ten by the original K7RA (at that
time W7EXM, Homer Spence) in 1971, and obtained the member number
5569.

Last week's bulletin mentioned long nighttime propagation on ten
meters observed from New York to Oklahoma.  Several people wrote in
about this, including Jon Jones, N0JK, who says E-layer propagation
was the most likely mode.  On that same morning, November 14, strong
E-layer propagation was reported on both 10 and 6 meters.  He notes
that at 15:55z N4LI in EM55 (in Tennessee) reported hearing loud ten
meter propagation all up and down the eastern seaboard.  At 16:09z
W5TDN in EM22 (in Texas) reported hearing WB3ANT (FN21) and W3MEL
(FN10), both in Pennsylvania.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
Information Service propagation page at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past
bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
NNNN
/EX